Drought Could Put Arizona's Water Planning To The Test

By Will Stone
Published: Friday, May 29, 2015 - 12:52pm
Updated: Friday, May 29, 2015 - 2:42pm
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(Photo by Will Stone - KJZZ)
Ron Rayner grows wheat and other crops in Goodyear.
Arizona Department of Water Resources
A map of the five active management areas in central Arizona where groundwater pumping is regulated.
(Photo by Will Stone - KJZZ)
View from Rayner's farm in Goodyear.

As California grapples with water shortages, Arizonans can breathe easy — for now.

For decades, the state has relied on the Colorado River and preserved groundwater resources. But the current drought is now putting those management plans to the test.

Ron Rayner, who farms west of Phoenix, said his well is delivering just as much water as it was 30 years ago. Like many farmers in Arizona, Rayner has dramatically improved his irrigation methods over the years.

"If anyone thinks we're going to let even a drop of water get away, they're wrong," said Rayner as he stood beside a ripening field of wheat in Goodyear.

“When you bite that little kernel and it cracks, you know it’s very dry and brittle," said Rayner.

The special kind of wheat he grows, known as desert durum, is not quite ready yet, but eventually it will become a key ingredient for pasta.

The neighborhood has changed since Rayner began growing in this location 60 years ago. Airplanes and industrial developments now occupy old farmland.  But business is still good. If anything, Arizona growers who have access to reliable water are seeing increased demand and high prices.

"Our water use today is not significantly different," said Rayner. "But, when I look at what we’re producing from it, we have essentially doubled our production since the 1980 Groundwater Management Act.”

That is when the state — responding to rapidly declining aquifers — began regulating groundwater in much of central Arizona, setting limits on how much growers can pump, halting new farmland and requiring municipal providers to replenish what they use. All this to reach what is called “safe yield” in places like Phoenix and Tucson by 2025, meaning a balance between how much water is pumped and recharged.

But some water experts believe the state should be doing more to preserve its groundwater.

Karen Smith is a fellow at the Grand Canyon Institute and former deputy director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources.

“In none of those areas will we reach that goal [of safe yield],” said Smith.

According to Smith, we are not in balance now and that is troubling. As climate change progresses, less water comes from rivers and snowpack, and the drought deepens, more people will turn to groundwater.

“Arizona’s situation is going to worsen," said Smith. "So with all of those variables, to begin that change, already in a hole makes that hole get deeper. What that means long term is wells will have to be drilled deeper. That is a cost. Aquifers will compact, land subidence.”

According to the most recent state numbers, the Phoenix management area could be out of balance by 400,000 acre feet in a high-growth scenario. Tucson is less, just about a quarter of that. Pinal County, a hub of agriculture, has no safe yield goal, but is also in overdraft. The current drought could only exacerbate the problem.

Thomas Buschatzke is director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources. He said Arizona is not in a crisis.

“We have the ability to backfill our water supplies when these shortages hit at the tier one, tier two and tier three level, so we are pretty resilient.”

Each tier represents a greater cutback in Arizona’s share of the Colorado River. Current projections show a tier-one shortage, the least severe, being declared in 2017. None of this will immediately impact cities, but farmers will lose half, if not more, of their water. And many will likely return to what they once used: groundwater.

“We will probably see, depending on how much they pump and where, some impacts to the aquifers, but, again, that is their legal right and that is part of the compromise that created the groundwater code in the first place,” said Buschatzke.

In other words, those farmers who lose Colorado River water still have the right to pump and no obligation to replenish that water.

How much could groundwater use increase?  The state has no estimates yet. If all the farmers who have water rights start pumping, that could have major, unanticipated impacts. Buschatzke calls that "a gross overestimation" and "a worst-case scenario."

But Karen Smith believes that water managers need to be ready for that possibility, no matter how unlikely it may seem now.

“It is a dark prospect I think they simply don’t want to acknowledge that,” said Smith.

While the state has banked almost 9 million acre feet for drought, Smith said farmers are licensed to pump 5 million acre feet using so-called "flex credits," which are not factored into any water use projections.

To be clear, Arizona has done better than other states planning for drought.

Chuck Cullom is with the Central Arizona Project, which provides Colorado River water. He said they already have many conservation and efficiency programs, ample reservoir storage capacity and the possibility of treating poor quality water in the future.

“Our solution is not to go back on an unsustainable water situation," said Cullom.

This is the message of water managers throughout the state: we are prepared. But, ultimately, no one knows how much rain or snow will come next winter.

Then there is the larger, existential threat: Southwestern states are promised an unrealistic amount of the Colorado River in the first place — just one more question in what could be a very dry future.


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